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Investing Opportunity: The silver lining to a cloudy economy

By Bryan Sims on February 1st, 2010 • Economy, Stocks, Investing
Originally appeared in: Spring 2010Publisher's 2¢

The past two years have been nothing less than an economic roller coaster. Everything has been affected. Money is tight and jobs are scarce, so it may seem like investing is the last thing you should do. However, there are opportunities in this seemingly glum picture.

The economy is a cycle with ups and downs. Even during times of normal economic activity, the stock market has a four-phase cycle: accumulation, markup, distribution and markdown. Accumulation occurs when large investment institutions buy up lots of shares over a sustained period of time. During markup, prices trend higher--eventually leveling off at a new, higher range. Then comes distribu¬tion, where shares are sold at the new price plateau. Next is markdown, when share prices stop peaking, share inventory is sold off, and prices begin a sustained downturn. Then the cycle repeats itself.

Obviously our current economic situation is more than just a normal market cycle, but the general principle holds true. After a period of prosperity--the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 1,565.15 points in 2007--it's understandable that the economy resets itself before returning to previous highs. So what does that mean to you? Houses are cheaper, the S&P 500 is at a lower value with a 52-week range of 666.79--1,119.13 points, and life is slightly cheaper… at least until inflation catches up. The next few years could be a great time to begin investing and grow your money.

Few generations have had the opportunity we do: to buy into the American economy (through market investments or real estate) when it is at such a low point. For example, national average housing prices have returned to what they were in 2003. Lower prices, combined with an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers or a $6,500 credit for homeowners looking to purchase a new primary residence, could make this a great time to buy. (To take advan¬tage of the tax credits, you'll need to buy or sign a purchase contract by April 30, 2010--see irs.gov for the details.)

Regardless of whether you buy a house or invest in stocks or other equities, you'll need to formulate an investment strategy to choose what investment vehicles fit best. The key is to start now--when you're young--so that your money has a long time to grow. "Buy low, sell high" is an oft-quoted strategy that is easier said than done. The trick is to know when the low really is a low, and have enough money to capitalize on it. If you're investing for the long haul, right now is probably a pretty good time to start.

Sources: wsj.com, money.cnn.com, fool.com, investopedia.com, irs.gov, standardandpoors.com, usnews.com, realtor.org, smartmoney.com, bls.gov, investorwords.com, bloomberg.com, finance.yahoo.com

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