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Kreme of the Crop: Is Krispy Kreme stock worth the dough?

By Chris Lahiji, Chris Stallman on May 1st, 2004 • Stocks, Investing
Originally appeared in: Summer 2004Take Two

They're both 20. They're both named Chris. Chris Lahiji is the youngest Mutual Fund Manager in U.S. history. Chris Stallman is currently working on an investment book for young adults and teenagers while he operates teenanalyst.com. Between the two of them, they have been featured in many media spots including The Wall Street Journal and CNN.

We decided to give them a whack at sharing their opinions. Here is how we do it. Both write their opinions on a randomly selected company without knowing the other's views. Then they exchange notes and respond to each other's perspective. Read on as Chris and Chris talk about what they think of Krispy Kreme (NYSE:KKD).

Chris Lahiji

I'm sorry dudes, but I do not know what's worse--Krispy Kreme's stock or it's overrated donuts! This is a company that has branched out too far, too fast, and is a major contributor to obesity in America.

From an investor's perspective, even though Krispy Kreme makes more and more money every year, the valuation of the stock is too high. Get this--according to Wall Street, it has more than $2.1 billion market cap. At the end of fiscal year 2003, Krispy Kreme had 363 retail stores in existence in 44 U.S. states. Simple math would tell you that each store is being valued just shy of $6 million dollars a pop. In 2003, Krispy Kreme did $778.6 million in annual sales. Divide that by the number of stores, and each store was responsible for approximately $2.1 million in sales. Ask yourself whether one single store is worth nearly $6 million. It's not! Since when did sugar, flour, and water add up to so much? Sounds like a recipe for an over-inflated stock price to me.

The top 5 things I dislike:
  1. The inability to continue growing sales at previous rates.
  2. This company is a fad and fads are often short-lived.
  3. Over-expansion will hurt margins and increase start-up costs.
  4. People are starting to eat healthier.
  5. There is no such thing as a low-carb doughnut!
Chris Stallman

Krispy Kreme's donuts may be quite tasty, but their stock isn't necessarily something you should sink your teeth into right now. Here's what I do and don't like about the company.

Likes
  1. Great product. You can't deny that Krispy Kreme has some of the best donuts out there. Who can't like a place that gives out free donuts when you stand in line? This is probably one of the reasons Krispy Kreme has such a strong customer base.
  2. Future growth potential. There are 363 Krispy Kreme stores in the U.S. According to its franchise standards, Krispy Kreme looks to open in cities with a population of at least 100,000, which is just the low hanging fruit. There is obviously room to grow, both in the United States and internationally.
  3. Strong historical growth. Due to its wide popularity, the company has been able to show significant sales growth over the past three years.
Dislikes:
  1. Pricey stock. I'm always hesitant about buying a food industry stock that's trading at 38 times earnings. Similar restaurant companies trade at a significantly lower multiple--around 23 times earnings.
  2. Increased competition. Another popular donut restaurant, Tim Hortons, is rapidly expanding into the United States. Tim Hortons has the size (over six times as many stores as Krispy Kreme) to threaten Krispy Kreme's market share by establishing its presence first.
  3. Falling margins. Krispy Kreme recently reported that its store margins have fallen for the first time in three years. Lower margins mean the company has a lower degree of operating leverage.

I certainly love Krispy Kreme donuts, but I think the stock leaves a little something to be desired. If it ever falls back to the upper $20's range, I think it would be an attractive buy.

 

Editor's Note: The opinions expressed here are not necessarily that of the publisher and/or distributors of the magazine. All analysis is meant for educational purposes only and not as financial advice. You should not make decisions based on information contained in brass|MAGAZINE without the advice of a qualified professional advisor.

The Bottom Line

Chris's Bottom Line: Aside from my favorite donut being the chocolate glazed custard creme from Dunkin Donuts, Krispy Kreme's stock should be avoided as much as a person on Atkin's should avoid donuts. Chris's Bottom Line: At these prices, I recommend investing your money in their donuts and a new belt rather than Krispy Kreme stock.

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