Lights! Camera! Action!: Does Netflix stock make the final cut?
Netflix (NYSE: NFLX) is the world's largest online DVD movie rental service. It promises to eliminate the hassle involved in renting movies, and if you're busy like I am, this could be the perfect arrangement. The question is--should you invest in it?
- Netflix hit the one million customer mark even faster than industry giant AOL, adding nearly a million customers and 15,000 titles in 2005.
- Netflix has great customer service, and was rated the number one website for customer satisfaction in a survey by ForeSee Results and FGI Research. Fast Company magazine also recently awarded Netflix its annual "Customers First Award."
- The stock reached a two-year low in November 2004 after a lawsuit, but shows resiliency having almost completely recovered in the year since.
- Revenue for the third quarter of 2005 saw a record 23 percent year-over-year growth from the third quarter of 2004.
- In May 2005, Wal-Mart announced an agreement with Netflix to market movie services on their respective websites.
- Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) recently announced additions to Blockbuster Online with incentives to get Netflix customers to switch services.
- Netflix could be sensitive to a market shift. I wonder if Netflix will be able to adapt if DVDs become obsolete.
- The company was sued on September 23, 2004 for breaching its contract to provide "unlimited DVD rentals for a flat monthly fee... via one-day delivery."
- With a decline in the purchase cost of a DVD, consumers may decide that it's just as cost-efficient to buy the movie as to rent it, leaving Netflix behind.
- Netflix won't become a permanent fixture if subscribers get bored with the novelty; they will go back to picking up movies when they pass the video store on the way home.
A revolutionary in the movie rental industry, Netflix is now a widely recognized Internet brand. However, competitors are catching up--can Netflix stay ahead long enough to make an investment worthwhile?
- Netflix has revolutionized the way we rent movies. In my eyes, they have the best product on the Internet and I've been happy with their service.
- They send DVDs right to your door and you can send them back at your convenience. They have a simple business model and their speed in executing orders is terrific.
- Customer base has been growing tremendously fast. At the close of 2005, Netflix had an estimated 4 million customers.
- The company has a cult-like following, and is quickly becoming one of the leading brand names on the Internet.
- High gas prices and lazy consumers are two huge advantages to Netflix. When your DVDs arrive in the mail, how can you possibly go back to a conventional rental store?
- Blockbuster is an 800-pound gorilla looking to take market share away by luring customers to their online service. Amazon.com is also a potential competitor.
- If Bill Gates is right, DVDs will become obsolete as consumers simply download movies from their computers to their TVs. Video on Demand anyone?
- Gross margins are dropping because they are spending more money on attaining customers. Currently at 43.2 percent, Netflix is still sharply lower than the 49.5 percent a year ago.
- To date, 8.4 million people have been trial members, but the company has yielded only 3.6 million subscribers. That translates to the low hit rate of approximately 43 percent.
- The stock has tripled in a year and it seems that investors have gotten too excited as of late.
Editor's Note: At the time of article submission by the writers, Netflix stock closed at $29.95 per share. By the time this issue went to press on January 12th, the stock was trading at $25.72.
Chris's Bottom Line: Netflix is a best-of-breed company that has a loyal following in the Internet world. However, I cannot justify paying nearly $30 bucks a share (or $1.6 billion) for a company that still faces tremendous competition and may not be around in ten years because of the obsolescence of DVDs.
Heather's Bottom Line: While I would expect slow, steady, short-term growth, I wouldn't bet my future on the company. If you're set on the online DVD rental specific industry though, Netflix is probably your strongest choice in the current market.






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