Nokia Calling: Should you Pick Up?
Do you know anything that comes out of Finland? With the exception of the mobile phone powerhouse Nokia (NYSE: NOK), I don't. The company, which amazingly enough started as a wooden pulp mill, is one of the world's largest telecom companies, selling more cell phones than any other entity on the globe.
- Wireless sales are booming. Momentum in the global handset market is expected to continue throughout 2005 after growth last year exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. Handset sales are expected to exceed 730 million units in 2005, after rising 30% to 674 million in 2004.
- Huge market transition is currently underway. Sales growth is moving from affluent Western and Asian countries to emerging markets in China, India, Eastern Europe, South America and even Africa.
- Nokia owns the sixth most valuable brand in the world, according to the annual Business Week magazine/Inter-brand Global Brand Scorecard.
- Nokia is bringing out a vast collection of new smart phones and 3G (third generation) technology to drive future growth.
- In the next 5-10 years, fewer people will have landlines, as cellular coverage improves and prices become competitive.
- The CEO, Jorma Ollila, is stepping down after 14 years on the job. He took on the position of CEO when Nokia was losing money and boosted the company's image and profits, boasting $4.4 billion in profit last year.
- Margins on the products are dropping. Because of increased competition from Samsung, LG, and Motorola, Nokia is making less on each product it sells.
- Loyalty in the mobile industry is not what it used to be. In the past, people were more likely to purchase certain brands but now because there are so many manufacturers and designs, people have more choices.
- Nokia has lost its edge in design, with competitors making more flashy and unique models than Nokia's product line offers. Currently, Nokia doesn't have any cool low end models (less than $150) that can compete with the others.
- Nokia is losing market share here in North America and despite its growth in other markets, the North American market is fundamental.
Charles Worthman
As the world becomes more interconnected, cell phones are becoming a larger part of our lives. However, while cell phones are everywhere, does this necessarily mean we should buy stock in the King of Cell Phones, as Nokia is sometimes called?
- Nokia has the largest market share in the industry.
- Nokia has a wonderful balance sheet. This provides the company with tremendous flexibility, allowing for greater consideration of acquiring other companies. It also enables the company to hunker down in bad times and most importantly, to outlast other competitors should things get tough as they have in recent years.
- Nokia is not sitting on its hands. The company has released a slew of new model phones this year and continues to pursue innovation in its design.
- Nokia is geographically diverse, making it less prone to downturns in local economies. The company also has exposure to faster growing markets like China and Russia.
- Nokia is valued at more than $26.4 billion, 10% more than last year's estimate.
- The company really missed key trends in handsets for 2004, particularly in their failure to introduce more "flip" phones, which are particularly popular in North America.
- In 2004, Nokia's first-half sales slumped and market share dropped below 30% for the first time in a half-decade.
- The industry is becoming more and more competitive.
- Much of the losses Nokia has sustained have come in the higher price/higher margin areas, leading to lower profitability.
- Despite the fact that Nokia has been rated one of the top brands in the world today, I think this estimation is somewhat far-fetched. Cell phone consumers are fickle, wanting the hottest technology
Chris: The wireless market is on fire globally and will continue to grow in the double digits over the next five years. Nokia is one of the largest and best names in the segment and I am betting on its continued success.
Charles: If I were to buy shares of a company in the cell phone industry, Nokia would be the one. Long-term, I think Nokia will remain strong. Nokia also appears to be relatively under-priced compared to its peers, especially when you consider that it is the industry leader. Those who don't want short-term pain may want to wait for things to play out with Nokia before looking at investing in the company.






Post new comment