The Real Estate Forecast: Predicting the annual real estate cycle
Judging from all the "for sale" signs in neighborhoods around the country, it should come as no surprise that we are in the midst of a painful correction in the long-term U.S. real estate cycle. But it's important not to confuse the long-term cycle with the annual real estate cycle when it comes to buying or selling a house in good times or in bad.
The annual real estate cycle can best be explained and differentiated by the four seasons. Put simply, spring and summer command top-dollar real estate sales, while fall and winter fetch lower prices.
Psychology of the sell
Most realtors will tell you that home sales nationwide tend to hit their peak between April and July, and bottom out during the winter months. This is because, in most parts of the country, these months have nicer weather, making it a great time to get out and look at houses that are freshly spruced up from a little spring cleaning. Also, parents and others whose lives are tied to the school year want to take advantage of summer vacation and move before the new school year starts.
For many of the same reasons, the fall and winter are often the worst times to sell a house. Children are in the middle of the school year, so parents don't want to relocate. Also, in many parts of the country the weather is bad, which makes for difficult moving.
Seller's viewpoint
As a seller, these factors make spring and summer a great time to sell a home. There's a high likelihood that more people will be looking at your house, which makes it easier to negotiate because demand is high. Buyers might forgo some of the haggling in exchange for getting into their new digs before fall.
On the flip side, if the buyer isn't in any particular hurry, they might wait you out until the fall and winter. These seasons typically have less activity and you could end up selling the house below the asking price in order to get a deal closed and move on with your life.
To take full advantage of the prime selling season, get your house prepped before spring bursts into full bloom. Curb appeal, the first impression of a home as viewed from the street, plays a big factor in selling. It shows the buyer that your home has been cared for and that you're serious about wanting to sell. Having the right curb appeal can even increase the property's value. Start with relatively easy things like adding potted plants and flowers, replacing hardware, repainting the front door, and washing the siding and gutters. For more tips, search "curb appeal" at bhg.com or kiplinger.com.
Buyer's viewpoint
As a buyer, the best time to get a good deal on a house is usually during the off-season--fall and winter. Because home sales are slower during this time of the year, there's less competition, meaning you have more negotiating power. Especially as the winter approaches, sellers face the prospect of waiting months to sell their home. If they're in a situation where they need to sell quickly, you may be able to negotiate a sweet deal. Also, look for houses that have been for sale for a while. Usually, the longer a house is on the market, the more difficult it is for sellers to get the price they want. Either way, the benefit is to the buyer.
When preparing to buy a house, it's important to have your homework done and paperwork in order before making an offer. Show the seller you're a serious, quali¬fied buyer by getting pre-approved for a mortgage and researching local real estate prices. This can go a long way toward earning a seller's trust, and can make you look like ray of sunshine when most buyers are huddled indoors for the winter.
In 2008, 4,913,000 existing houses were sold. Depending on whether you're a buyer or seller, knowing how to use the annual real estate cycle to your advantage can save or make thousands of dollars.
Sources: seattlepi.com, investopepedia.com, lendingtree.com, realtor.org, bankrate.com, kiplinger.com, bhg.com, realestate.yahoo.com






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