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[ young today, rich tomorrow ]

Should You Test Drive Ford Stock?

By Chris Lahiji, Chris Stallman on February 1st, 2004 • Auto, Investing
Originally appeared in: Spring 2004Take Two

They're both 20 and they're both named Chris. Chris Lahiji is the youngest mutual fund manager in U.S. history and operates lahiji.com. Chris Stallman is currently working on an investment book for young adults and teenagers while he operates teenanalyst.com. Between the two of them they have been featured in many media spots including The Wall Street Journal and CNN.

We decided to give them a whack at sharing their opinions. Here is how we do it. Both write their opinions on a randomly selected company without knowing the other's views. Then they exchange notes and respond to each other's perspective. So, without further adieu, we introduce you to Chris and Chris talking about the Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).

Chris Lahiji

Ford, the second largest car company in the world. Struggling??? You bet!

  1. Ford has lost over five billion dollars in the last three years (guardian.com). Wow! The company has had a hard time lowering losses due to the amount of "excess fat" they carry, and are having trouble making any real money.
  2. Ford fired almost 20,000 workers in the past 24 months (money.cnn.com). Sure doesn't sound like a recovery to me. 335,000 workers are a lot of paychecks. Employees cost money. Health insurance and pension plans aren't cheap.
  3. The reason why they have sold so many cars is because of 0% financing, not because society has money to spend. Everyone is buying a car on credit. That means that an overwhelming majority of the time, Ford gets paid incrementally when they have already sold the car.
  4. Ford has strong competition both domestically and internationally. General Motors competes domestically with Ford while overseas Ford competes with DaimlerChrysler and the Asian manufacturers like Toyota.
  5. Lawsuits, such as the Explorer/F000 irestone ordeal, and recalls scare me. This will hurt the bottom line, and hurt shareholders. I personally would not buy stock in something that sells a product and gets paid years later for it. Nothing scares me more than the fact it had over $100 billion of consolidated debt outstanding as of Sept. 30, 2003 (CFO.com; Forbes.com) which needs to be paid back with interest. Last but not least, this is the company that made the Ford Fiesta (a box with wheels) for goodness sake. Stay away!
Chris Stallman

Ford motor company has been a leader in the automotive industry every since Henry Ford first invented the Model T and designed the assembly line. They own eight of the most popular car brands that generate over $160 billion in sales each year.

  1. Size could actually be one of the things that is hurting the company. Because it's already one of the leaders in the automotive industry, its revenues have remained flat for the last couple years.
  2. The automotive industry is a very competitive industry and continues to force Ford to keep very low prices on their car models. The competition has hurt Ford by driving their profit margins below the alreadylow industry average.
  3. Ford shows that their debt hasn't increased much over the last couple years, which is a good thing. However, the type of debt has changed considerably. A lot of their non-current liabilities have shifted into current liabilities. This means that the company has a greater burden of debt in the near future, which makes it harder for companies like Ford to grow.
  4. Not everything is bad about Ford's stock. I feel that the company has a rich history and great management. Management is doing a good job of finding ways to cut costs and get the company back on track by closing plants that aren't performing as well. There are even signs for good potential growth in Asia as the company begins looking to expand their market share in Thailand with their Mazda brand.
  5. For the most part, institutions such as mutual funds and pension plans have shown a good deal of support by maintaining their positions in Ford stock, even adding more shares to their portfolios at times.

Editor's Note: The opinions expressed here are not necessarily that of the publisher and/or distributors of the magazine. All analysis is meant for educational purposes only and not for financial advice. You should not make decisions based on information contained in brass without the advice of a qualified professional advisor.

The Bottom Line

Chris: If you want to keep your money, don't buy Ford stock. Chris: In general, I think Ford is a great company that has stood the test of time. However, I think there are some negative factors that would prevent me from buying the stock right now.

  • What do you think?
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  • 4
ray

Your so wrong about Ford. I bought Ford at 2.65/share on 3/18/09, I have gained over 130% today 5/6/09 at $6.22/share. With GM and Chrysler facing Bankruptcy, Ford taking no government money, pumping millions into a green hybrid facility, it is poised to break out. Your assessment is flat wrong.

by ray on May 6, 2009
jenniebartlemay

Hi Ray. The article you were commenting on was published in the Spring 2004 issue, so it was based on 2004 data. The date is located below the headline near the top of the article.

Congrats on your good investment.
- Jennie

by jenniebartlemay on May 18, 2009
Al

Doesn't matter, Ray is still wrong.

His investment in a company that is $160 billion in the hole with a $7+ stock share is meaningless is he doesnt' cash out before it's inevitable plummet.

Companies that don't make profit without "accounting" involved like Ford did this past quarter should not be gaining in stock price.

Or did we not learn that from the dot com bust where companies that do nothing but take up an internet address were offering up ridiculous stock IPOs...

Just wondering.

by Al on August 23, 2009
jenniebartlemay

Hi Al. That's the interesting thing about investing is that everyone makes choices based on different kinds of information. It might be one ratio or assessment rather than another, or even just someone's gut feeling. Thanks for chiming in! 

by jenniebartlemay on August 24, 2009

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