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Yum! Foods Will Fatten Your Waistline: But how about your wallet?

By Chris Lahiji, Tina Dressel on February 1st, 2005 • Food, Investing
Originally appeared in: Spring 2005Take Two
Chris Lahiji

Chicken, and pizza, and tacos--oh my! Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is one of the largest fast-food franchisers in the world, trailing only McDonald's in overall sales. It does outnumber the burger giant in store locations, however, with more than 33,000 units in over 100 countries. The company's flagship brands include KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell. Yum! also owns A&W All-American Food Restaurants and Long John Silver's. It recently disposed of its stake in Yan Can, a start-up, fast, casual Asian restaurant chain.

Likes
  1. Fast food will always be in style. It's fast, affordable and tastes great. Caution: May have a tendency to clog your arteries.
  2. Yum! has been consistently making more money each year, and continues to build additional Taco Bells and Pizza Huts. Over the past three years they have consistently increased both sales and gross profit.
  3. Diet fads like the low-carb craze will come and go, but people will always enjoy the convenience of 33,000 stores.
  4. New hybrid stores will increase sales, decrease operating costs and give consumers more flexibility and choice.
  5. Between 2002 and 2003, Yum! not only increased their total assets but also decreased their total liabilities, showing the company has a strong management team.
Dislikes
  1. Lawsuits and obesity are serious. McDonald's got sued for hot coffee, what's to say Yum! is safe? Super Size Me anyone?
  2. A Mad Cow scare spells trouble for Yum! subsidiaries like Taco Bell and Pizza Hut. The stock dips at the mere mention of Mad Cow Disease.
  3. McDonald's, Wendy's, and Burger King have saturated the fast food market.
  4. The stock, formally owned by Pepsi, still has very strong ties to the company. Notice that most, if not all, of the stores still serve Pepsi?
  5. Restaurants that serve healthy food at a fast food pace, like Subway and Quizno's, are rapidly expanding their number of stores.
Tina Dressel

The name says it all. From tacos to fried chicken & pizza of all kinds, Yum! Brands, Inc. seems to have what people are hungry for. But let's look at more technical information to see if it belongs on the 99-cent value list:

Likes
  1. Sustainable demand--people have to eat. Even when the stock market is down, the demand for food remains consistent.
  2. Brand names--A&W, Long John Silver's, Pizza Hut, KFC and Taco Bell are all known worldwide. This brand recognition increases stock value and future growth.
  3. Historical growth--Yum! has historically provided consistent returns to its shareholders.
  4. Diversification--the company has very different subsidiaries to fit the tastes of their customers. Unlike McDonald's, which focuses on burgers, Yum! customers can get anything their heart, or stomach, desires.
Dislikes
  1. Company growth--Yum! Brands, Inc has nearly exhausted its ability to grow in the U.S. and has had broad expansion internationally.
  2. Industry growth--the fast food market has been captured by strong players such as McDonald's, Sonic, and Subway. To grow, Yum! must steal market share from competitors, making long-term growth inconsistent.
  3. Effects of increased costs--the short supply of tomatoes due to the Florida hurricanes drastically increased costs. When this type of thing happens the company either absorbs costs or passes them to customers, making it harder to compete.
  4. High price--with the estimated growth rate, Yum! seems a little overpriced with a P/E ratio near 20.
The Bottom Line

Chris: Right now I think that the risks outweigh the rewards for Yum! stock, making it a little too greasy for me to swallow.

Tina: If you already own the stock, I think you can count on fairly consistent returns in the future. For those who are just looking, I think you can put your money somewhere with similar risk and better prospective returns.

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